Manifold Markets
World's largest social prediction market.
manifold.markets DiscordEntertainment & Media / Betting & Gambling
- Monthly visits
- 293K
- Down8.8%MoMOct 2026
- Public revenue
- Undisclosed
- No public revenue evidence yet
- Entry price
- Free
- No monthly subscription pricing
- Launched
- 4y ago
- 2022-02-09 · Est.
Traffic
Marketing moves
Launches, search & content, referrals, promotions- https://manifold.markets/NathanScott/will-marco-rubio-leave-the-position?r=SmFjazE 回复原帖 @manifoldmarkets: Traders currently give Marco Rubio a 57% chance of leaving his SOS role before the end of 2027
@manifoldmarkets · 2026-11-06 · 0 likes · 0 reposts · 160 views
- Traders currently give Marco Rubio a 57% chance of leaving his SOS role before the end of 2027 引用帖 @business: Breaking: Secretary of State Marco Rubio is weighing whether to leave the Trump administration, people familiar with the matter s
@manifoldmarkets · 2026-11-06 · 1 likes · 0 reposts · 544 views
- Traders currently give Chuck Schumer an 83% chance to lead the Senate in the next Congress. https://manifold.markets/Jack1/who-will-lead-the-senate-after-2026?r=SmFjazE
@manifoldmarkets · 2026-11-06 · 1 likes · 0 reposts · 336 views
Launched on Show HN (2 pts)Launch
Using a prediction market to play Wordle
Feb 11, 2022 · 4y agoLaunch page
Launched on Show HN (84 pts · 72 comments)Launch
Create your own prediction market in two minutes — Hi HN! Excited to show off the project we've been working on for the last couple months. We started with an idea for a crazy twist on pred…
Feb 9, 2022 · 4y agoLaunch page
Third-party reviews & case dossiers
Acquisition breakdowns, engineer reviews & open-source metrics- Post excerpt:
- Hi HN! Excited to show off the project we've been working on for the last couple months. We started with an idea for a crazy twist on prediction markets: You come up with a question for traders to predict, and then decide the outcome yourself. For example, you could create a market on “Will my date with [X] go well?” Anyone can bet on it, and the bets create
Traffic sources
Traffic breakdown
Channels
- Direct73%
- Organic Search19%
- Referrals3%
- Social3%
- Other1%
Countries
- United States68%
- Canada3%
- Netherlands2%
- Germany2%
- Brazil2%
Search
Domain authority —Domain registered 2022-01-04
| Keyword | Monthly volume |
|---|---|
| gemini 4 | 847.5K |
| manifold | 57.8K |
| starship flight 15 | 29.1K |
| manifold markets | 3,280 |
| manifold prediction market | 490 |
Traffic data: Vaneform
Pricing
Pricing page does not list plan prices.
Trial: None · Observed 2026-11-03 · Pricing page
Pages & changes
Key pages
Weekly snapshotsChanges
Design
Minimal Monochrome (Light canvas, dense density) featuring full-bleed canvas / video / 3d layout and product ui screenshot / component visuals.
First-screen preview · click to zoom
First-screen pitch & conversion flow
Full-Bleed Canvas / Video / 3D hero structure paired with start free / sign up CTA and no explicit trust bar.
Conversion path: Full-Bleed Canvas / Video / 3D + Product UI Screenshot / Component → Start Free / Sign Up
- Category Positioning Anchor
- Large Hero Product Shot
Palette · click to copy
- Typography
- 7.0
- Color & Contrast
- 7.0
- Layout & Spacing
- 7.0
- Craft & Polish
- 7.0
- Distinctiveness
- 6.0
Structure
- Fonts
- Figtree
- Hero layout
- Full-Bleed Canvas / Video / 3D
- Primary visual
- Product UI Screenshot / Component
- Conversion CTA
- Start Free / Sign Up
- Social proof
- No Explicit Trust Bar
- Navigation
- Left App Sidebar
- Theme & density
- Light · Dense
- Corners & depth
- Medium Radius · Hairline borders
Preview full AI design brief (includes :root CSS variables & layout rules)Style tokens only; never copy brand names, logos, copy, or images
# Design Brief: Minimal Monochrome
Monochrome palette with a single accent color, hairline dividers, and generous whitespace.
## Design Tokens
```css
:root {
--background: #ffffff;
--surface: #f3f4f8;
--foreground: #1f2937;
--muted-foreground: #6b7280;
--accent: #4f6ef7;
--radius: 8px;
--font-heading: "Figtree", ui-sans-serif, system-ui, sans-serif;
--font-body: "Figtree", ui-sans-serif, system-ui, sans-serif;
}
```
Color area ratio: Background #FFFFFF (~62%) · Surface #F3F4F8 (~12%) · Text #1F2937 (~14%) · Muted Text #6B7280 (~8%) · Accent #4F6EF7 (~4%). Background and surface dominate the canvas; reserve the accent color for primary buttons and active states.
## Layout & Conversion Structure
- Hero layout: Full-Bleed Canvas / Video / 3D
- Navigation: Left App Sidebar
- Theme & density: Light · Dense
- Border radius & elevation: Medium Radius; no drop shadows—separate layers with hairline borders and whitespace
- Primary visual medium: Product UI Screenshot / Component
- Conversion CTA: Start Free / Sign Up
- Headline hook: Category Positioning Anchor
- Hero components: Large Hero Product Shot
- Spatial layout notes: Full-Bleed Canvas / Video / 3D hero structure paired with start free / sign up CTA and no explicit trust bar.
- Visual summary: Minimal Monochrome (Light canvas, dense density) featuring full-bleed canvas / video / 3d layout and product ui screenshot / component visuals.
## Avoid
- Multi-stop neon gradients
- Heavy drop shadows
- More than one competing accent color
Implement the UI following the design tokens and layout specifications above: use only these color variables, and reserve the accent color strictly for primary actions and active states. Adopt only this visual style—never copy any reference product’s brand name, logo, copy, or imagery.
Questions & evidence
- How much website traffic does Manifold Markets get?
- Vaneform estimates 293K website visits in 2026-10. Visits can include repeat visits; this estimate measures web traffic separately from paying customers or revenue.Source
- What is Manifold Markets and what platforms does it support?
- Manifold Markets is catalogued under Betting & Gambling: World's largest social prediction market.. Supported platforms: Web.
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