Products

Manifold Markets

World's largest social prediction market.

manifold.markets DiscordEntertainment & Media / Betting & Gambling

AI Benchmark
Desktop
Mobile
Monthly visits
293K
Down8.8%MoMOct 2026
Public revenue
Undisclosed
No public revenue evidence yet
Entry price
Free
No monthly subscription pricing
Creators
James Grugett
No social account linked+1 more creators
Launched
4y ago
2022-02-09 · Est.

Traffic

Monthly visitsData through Oct 2026
Events7 changes

Marketing moves

Launches, search & content, referrals, promotions
  • Launched on Show HN (2 pts)Launch

    Using a prediction market to play Wordle

    Feb 11, 2022 · 4y agoLaunch page

  • Launched on Show HN (84 pts · 72 comments)Launch

    Create your own prediction market in two minutes — Hi HN! Excited to show off the project we've been working on for the last couple months. We started with an idea for a crazy twist on pred…

    Feb 9, 2022 · 4y agoLaunch page

  • Launched on Product HuntLaunch

    Create your own prediction markets

    Feb 9, 2022 · 4y agoLaunch page

Third-party reviews & case dossiers

Acquisition breakdowns, engineer reviews & open-source metrics
Show HN
2022-02-09Source
Post excerpt:
Hi HN! Excited to show off the project we've been working on for the last couple months. We started with an idea for a crazy twist on prediction markets: You come up with a question for traders to predict, and then decide the outcome yourself. For example, you could create a market on “Will my date with [X] go well?” Anyone can bet on it, and the bets create

Traffic sources

Oct 2026

Traffic breakdown

Channels

  • Direct73%
  • Organic Search19%
  • Referrals3%
  • Social3%
  • Other1%

Countries

  • United States68%
  • Canada3%
  • Netherlands2%
  • Germany2%
  • Brazil2%

Search

Domain authority —Domain registered 2022-01-04

KeywordMonthly volume
gemini 4847.5K
manifold57.8K
starship flight 1529.1K
manifold markets3,280
manifold prediction market490

Traffic data: Vaneform

Pricing

Pricing page does not list plan prices.

Trial: None · Observed 2026-11-03 · Pricing page

Pages & changes

Tracked since 2022-02-09

Key pages

Weekly snapshots
manifold.markets/?fy=0 Snapshot 2026-11-04

Changes

  1. Nov 1 · 14d ago

    Adopted technology: CloudflareFeatures

    —→Cloudflare

    At the time: 293K visits/mo6 concurrent moves
  2. Nov 1 · 14d ago

    Adopted technology: Cloudflare Bot ManagementFeatures

    —→Cloudflare Bot Management

    At the time: 293K visits/mo6 concurrent moves
  3. Nov 1 · 14d ago

    Removed technology: Facebook PixelFeatures

    Facebook Pixel→—

    At the time: 293K visits/mo6 concurrent moves
  4. Nov 1 · 14d ago

    Removed technology: HotjarFeatures

    Hotjar→—

    At the time: 293K visits/mo6 concurrent moves
  5. Nov 1 · 14d ago

    Adopted technology: Priority HintsFeatures

    —→Priority Hints

    At the time: 293K visits/mo6 concurrent moves
  6. Nov 1 · 14d ago

    Adopted technology: TurbopackFeatures

    —→Turbopack

    At the time: 293K visits/mo6 concurrent moves

Design

First-screen visual analysis & :root CSS

Minimal Monochrome (Light canvas, dense density) featuring full-bleed canvas / video / 3d layout and product ui screenshot / component visuals.

First-screen preview · click to zoom

First-screen pitch & conversion flow

Full-Bleed Canvas / Video / 3D hero structure paired with start free / sign up CTA and no explicit trust bar.

Conversion path: Full-Bleed Canvas / Video / 3D + Product UI Screenshot / Component → Start Free / Sign Up

Palette · click to copy

5-D design score6.9 / 10
Typography
7.0
Color & Contrast
7.0
Layout & Spacing
7.0
Craft & Polish
7.0
Distinctiveness
6.0

Structure

Fonts
Figtree
Primary visual
Product UI Screenshot / Component
Conversion CTA
Start Free / Sign Up
Social proof
No Explicit Trust Bar
Navigation
Left App Sidebar
Theme & density
Light · Dense
Corners & depth
Medium Radius · Hairline borders
Preview full AI design brief (includes :root CSS variables & layout rules)Style tokens only; never copy brand names, logos, copy, or images
# Design Brief: Minimal Monochrome

Monochrome palette with a single accent color, hairline dividers, and generous whitespace.

## Design Tokens

```css
:root {
  --background: #ffffff;
  --surface: #f3f4f8;
  --foreground: #1f2937;
  --muted-foreground: #6b7280;
  --accent: #4f6ef7;
  --radius: 8px;
  --font-heading: "Figtree", ui-sans-serif, system-ui, sans-serif;
  --font-body: "Figtree", ui-sans-serif, system-ui, sans-serif;
}
```

Color area ratio: Background #FFFFFF (~62%) · Surface #F3F4F8 (~12%) · Text #1F2937 (~14%) · Muted Text #6B7280 (~8%) · Accent #4F6EF7 (~4%). Background and surface dominate the canvas; reserve the accent color for primary buttons and active states.

## Layout & Conversion Structure

- Hero layout: Full-Bleed Canvas / Video / 3D
- Navigation: Left App Sidebar
- Theme & density: Light · Dense
- Border radius & elevation: Medium Radius; no drop shadows—separate layers with hairline borders and whitespace
- Primary visual medium: Product UI Screenshot / Component
- Conversion CTA: Start Free / Sign Up
- Headline hook: Category Positioning Anchor
- Hero components: Large Hero Product Shot
- Spatial layout notes: Full-Bleed Canvas / Video / 3D hero structure paired with start free / sign up CTA and no explicit trust bar.
- Visual summary: Minimal Monochrome (Light canvas, dense density) featuring full-bleed canvas / video / 3d layout and product ui screenshot / component visuals.

## Avoid

- Multi-stop neon gradients
- Heavy drop shadows
- More than one competing accent color

Implement the UI following the design tokens and layout specifications above: use only these color variables, and reserve the accent color strictly for primary actions and active states. Adopt only this visual style—never copy any reference product’s brand name, logo, copy, or imagery.

Questions & evidence

How much website traffic does Manifold Markets get?
Vaneform estimates 293K website visits in 2026-10. Visits can include repeat visits; this estimate measures web traffic separately from paying customers or revenue.Source
What is Manifold Markets and what platforms does it support?
Manifold Markets is catalogued under Betting & Gambling: World's largest social prediction market.. Supported platforms: Web.

Related products in this category

Entertainment & Media / Betting & Gambling

These products share a catalog category. Compare customer tasks, features and deployment requirements before treating them as alternatives.